四、结论
中国主动适应经济全球化，实现了经济建设的飞跃式发展，在从一个贫穷落后的国度成长为世界第二大经济体的同时，始终坚持适合国情的文化和政治制度，从而向世界展示了西方主导的新自由主义模式之外的替代发展之路。中国的崛起及其探索形成的发展模式给现有霸权国美国带来的是焦虑和不确定感。如上文所述，这种焦虑可能成为中美冲突的内在根源。现有的紧张局势和冲突正在“螺旋式”升级。这首先是因为美国对中国存在战略误判，否认中国有全球舞台上负责任和建设性的作用甚至污蔑中国为“流氓国家”。其次是美国政客为赢得下届选举而采取的短视行为。这些行为自然会引起中方的坚决回击，大国对抗的加剧将影响全球经济和安全。美国应避免国内政治利益凌驾于外交政策之上。此外如扎卡里亚所言，美国还要意识到中美之间的定位应该是“竞争性合作”的关系。〔50〕
中美竞合有助于降低大国博弈的负面效应，增加世界解决共同面对的紧迫性问题的能力。因全球化而加剧的环境退化、恐怖主义、疾病、毒品和人口走私等问题需要国家、非国家行为体以及地方、国家和国际等多层次、立体化的合作。新冠疫情超越国别和种族界限，给全球经济带来严重破坏，中美之间的通力合作既必要也紧迫。
注释：
〔1〕Graham Allison, "The New Spheres of Influence: Sharing the Globe with Other Great Powers," Foreign Affairs， Vol. 99， No. 2， (2020): 30-40.
〔2〕See for example, Jacques, Martin. When China rules the world: The end of the western world and the birth of a new global order. Penguin, 2009.
〔3〕Aaron, Friedberg, "The future of US-China relations: Is conflict Inevitable?." International security 30， no. 2 (2005): 18. See also, John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (WW Norton & Company, 2001).
〔4〕Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?. (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017).
〔5〕新华网，改革开放以来我国农村贫困人口减少7.4亿人，2018年9月 3日，http://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2018-09/03/c_1123372510.htm
〔6〕Farred Zakaria, "The post-American World," (New York: New York: WW Norton and Company, 2008).
〔7〕Graham Allison, "The New Spheres of Influence: Sharing the Globe with Other Great Powers," Foreign Affairs, (March/April, 2020), 32.
〔8〕光明网，张维为发言稿（复旦大学中国发展模式研究中心主任），2015年10月20日，http://topics.gmw.cn/2015-10/20/content_17409780.htm
〔9〕Cited in Kerry Dumbaugh, "China's Foreign Policy: What Does It Mean for U.S. Global Interests?" CRS Report For Congress, July 18, 2008, p.5. Online https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34588.pdf (accessed May 16， 2020).
〔10〕Thomas Lum, Wayne Morrison, and Bruce Vaughn, "China's 'Soft Power' in Southeast Asia," CRS Report for Congress. Online http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34310.pdf, accessed on March 4, 2009; Pang, "China's Soft Power;" and Kurlantzick, "China's Charm."
〔11〕Dumbaugh, China's Foreign Policy: p.2.
〔12〕Jakob， Vestergaard， and Robert H. Wade, Out of the Woods: Gridlock in the IMF, and the World Bank Puts Multilateralism at Risk. No. 2014: 06. DIIS Report, 2014.
〔13〕Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?. (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017).
〔14〕Allison, "The New Spheres of Influence," p.30.
〔15〕Fareed Zakaria, "The New China Scare: Why America Shouldn't Panic About Its Latest Challenger," Foreign Affairs, (January/February, 2020), 53.
〔16〕Robert Blackwill, "Implementing Grand Strategy Toward China Twenty-Two U.S. Policy Prescriptions," Council on Foreign Relations, Council Special Report, January 2020. Online https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/CSR85_Blackwill_China.pdf (accessed May 16, 2020).
〔17〕The United States Strategic Approach to The People's Republic of China. May 20, 2020.
〔18〕Allison, Destined for War.
〔19〕Justin Coleman, US Intelligence Warned in November that Coronavirus Spreading in China Could Be "Cataclysmic Event," The Hill, April 8, 2020 online https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/intelligence/491712-us-intelligence-warned-in-november-that-virus-spreading (accessed May 13, 2020).
〔20〕Rem Rieder, "Democratic Ad Twists Trump's 'Hoax' Comment," FactCheck.Org, Public Policy Center, April 14, 2020, online https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/democratic-ad-twists-trumps-hoax-comment/ (accessed May 13, 2020).
〔21〕Lee Drutman, "Let a Thousand Parties Bloom," Foreign Policy, October 19, 2019. Online https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/19/us-democracy-two-party-system-replace-multiparty-republican-democrat/ (accessed May 15, 2020).
〔22〕Nurith Aizenman, "Experts Say the U.S. Neess A National Shutdown ASAP-But Differ On What Comes Next," NPR, March 27, 2020, online https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/27/822146372/experts-say-the-u-s-needs-a-national-shutdown-asap-but-differ-on-what-comes-next (accessed March 13, 2020).
〔23〕Justin McCarthy, "U.S. Coronavirus Concerns Surge, Government Trust Slides," Gallup, March 16, 2020, online https://news.gallup.com/poll/295505/coronavirus-worries-surge.aspx (accessed May 13, 2020).
〔24〕See for example, Kathleen Hal Hamieson and Dolores Albaracin, "The Relation between Media Consumption and Misinformation at the Outset of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in the US," The Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review, April 2020, Volume 1, Special Issue on COVID-19 and Misinformation, online https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/April19_FORMATTED_COVID-19-Survey.pdf. (accessed May 13, 2020).
〔25〕Virgil: The Deep State vs Donald Trump. Online https://www.mixedtimes.com/news/virgil-the-deep-state-vs-donald-trump (accessed May 15, 2020).
〔26〕Hamieson and Albaracin, "The Relation between Media."
〔27〕The Economist, "America vs China: Superpowered Insult," May 9, 2020, p.16.
〔28〕Alex Isenstadt, "GOP Memo Urges Anti-Chinese Assault Over Coronavirus." Politico, 04,24,2020, online https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/gop-memo-anti-china-coronavirus-207244 (accessed May 10, 2020)
〔29〕David Jackson and Kim Hjelmgaard, "Trump Says US Investigating Whether Coronavirus Spread After China Lab Mishap but Cites No Evidence," USA Today, April 20,2020. Online https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/18/trump-us-investigating-whether-coronavirus-spread-china-lab/5158551002/.
〔30〕Dambisa Moyo, Dead Aid: Why Aid is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa. (Macmillan, 2009), p.9.
〔31〕Moises Naim, "Rogue Aid."
〔32〕See for example, Paul Collier, The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can be Done About It (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011).
〔33〕Moyo, Dead Aid, p.108.
〔34〕out It (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011). Moyo, Dead Aid, p.109.
〔35〕See for example Deborah Brautigam, The Dragon's Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa. (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2011) and Moyo, Dead Aid.
〔36〕See for example, Jin Sato， Hiroaki Shiga, Takaaki Kobayashi, and Hisahiro Kondoh, " "Emerging Donors" from a Recipient Perspective: An Institutional Analysis of Foreign Aid in Cambodia," World Development 39, no. 12 (2011): 2091-2104.
〔37〕Fareed Zakaria, "The New China Scare: Why America Shouldn't Panic about Its Latest Challenger," Foreign Affairs 99, no. 1 (January/February 2020), 56-57.
〔38〕Zakaria, "The New China Scare," p.58.
〔39〕Robert Wade, "What Strategies Are Viable for Developing Countries Today? The World Trade Organization and the Shrinking of 'Development Space,'" Review of International Political Economy, Vol. 10, No. 4 (2003): 621-644.
〔40〕Pradumna Rana, "Monetary and Financial Cooperation in East Asia: The Chiang Mai Initiative and Beyond," (Manila: Asian Development Bank, 2002). https://web.archive.org/web/20101206173441/ ; http://www.adb.org/Documents/ERD/Working_Papers/wp006.pdf (accessed May 15, 2020).
〔41〕Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, "Hillary Clinton pleads with China to buy US Treasuries as Japan Looks On," The Telegraph, February 22, 2019. Online https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/4782755/Hillary-Clinton-pleads-with-China-to-buy-US-Treasuries-as-Japan-looks-on.html (accessed May 16, 2020).
〔42〕Xinhua, "China's COVID-19 Aid Is Humanitarian, Not Geopolitics," April 4, 2020, online http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/04/c_138947125.htm (accessed May 14, 2020).
〔43〕新华网，中国发布新冠肺炎疫情信息、推进疫情防控国际合作纪事，2020年4月6日，http://www.xinhuanet.com/2020-04/06/c_1125819214.htm。
〔44〕Graham Allison, Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?. Talk at Google, July 17, 2017, Youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDZAVNPbtBg (accessed May 14, 2020).
〔45〕Allison, "The New Spheres of Influence," 30.
〔46〕Samuel Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, (Simon and Shuster, 1996), 318.
〔47〕David Held, "Regulating Globalization? The Reinvention of Politics," International Sociology, Vol. 12, No. 2 (June 2000): 394-408.
〔48〕Yanzhong Huang, "The US and China Could Cooperate to Defeat the Pandemic: Instead, their Antagonism Makes Matters Worse," Foreign Affairs, March 24, 2020. Online https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-03-24/us-and-china-could-cooperate-defeat-pandemic.
〔49〕Andrew Nathan, "Review: The Truth About China," National Interests, No. 105 (January/February 2010), 77.
〔50〕Fareed Zakaria, "The New China Scare."
（全文刊载于《中国评论》月刊2020年8月号，总第272期） |
